Rudy Giuliani's Strategy?

[sea74]

I keep hearing that the reason Giuliani has not done well in any of the primaries/caucuses is because of his lack of campaigning and that his strategy is to only campaign in Florida. He feels that a singular win in Florida will give him advantage on "Super Tuesday" and then he'll go on to win the Republican nomination.

But I don't hear anyone explaining why that would be a winning strategy. Aren't the point of the primaries/caucuses to show your party how much support you have from likely voters over the entire country and not just one state?

What am I missing here :confused:

[myshel]

I'd love to know the answer to this too. My assumption is that the Super Tuesday states have more delegates to give and that's why he's doing it. I'd love it if someone who's more in the know would come explain this to us!

[Nigellas]

Also confused here too, as I understand that Florida (like Michigan) has been penalized for moving their primary up too soon. In Michigan that = less delegates on the GOP side (and none for the Democrat side). Doesn't seem like a great plan to me either.

[Delta]

The thinking is that he would have had an uphill battle in states like Iowa and NH and SC. In other words, he isn't their kind of Republican and it would have been a waste of his resources and time. So since he has a lot of built-in support in Florida (many former New Yorkers) they decided to start there and have an easy win going into Super Tuesday. I think he just assumed that with his name identity he could immediately go national, rather than local. If McCain had not won SC and established a trajectory towards the nomination, I think Rudy's strategy of being above the fray until Florida/Super Tuesday would have made more sense or been more successful. Of course, 6 months ago McCain looked finished so I don't think they were counting on him to come back from nowhere. I think right now in Florida it's a 4-way tie between Rudy, McCain, Romney and Huck when at one point Rudy was up big time. But one thing we've learned this primary season is not to count on polls. :rolleyes:

[sea74]

Thanks, Delta. That does make *some* sense. I guess time will tell if he made a smart move or not, but I don't think he did. Which is just as well because I don't want to see him get the Republican nod.

I'm also glad I wasn't the only one confused by his strategy ;)

[jnettie]

Ok, some of this is making more sense now.

I just got back from being in another country for a month now, and the last tv I watched was the BBC news, where they were covering Iowa and NH. Giuliani wasn't even mentioned. I thought that either he wasn't even in those primaries or he wasn't doing well enough for the foreign press to even cover.

In any event, he doesn't have a chance to win the nom IMO.

[bug]

I saw some pundits on TV today saying that this strategy could well backfire and that he is running low on funds, but this strategy like a PP said is designed to be a launching pad to the "Super Duper Tuesday" votes in a couple of weeks. He knew he wouldn't do well in the other states like Iowa & NH or SC, so it is better for him not to really try to compete where he didn't really stand a chance, as it would waste resources and would look bad if he tried hard and failed. This way, when he finishes far back in the pack in those states, he can explain his placement in the standings as he didn't campaign aggressively in those states, so it was to be expected.

I think also if he wins Florida, he will have about 57 (I think) delegates, which is more than any other GOP candidate. Florida only lets Republicans vote in this primary and the winner takes all the delegates.

While on the topic of Rudy, has anyone else noticed how his eyes bug out and get really wide every few moments? I find this to be very distracting and I mostly focus on that, not on what he is saying!

[bug]

Looks like his strategy failed with a third place finish tonight. Tomorrow he is apparently going to endorse John McCain, who got all 57 delegates.

[diam124]

His "strategy" was a HUGE mistake. I've been watching a lot of cable news coverage these past few weeks and it's like they totally forgot about him he was so rarely mentioned. His name was just not top of mind (except for maybe local Florida news).

I actually know one of his top campaign managers (his sister was one of my best friends in high school) and that alone was very surprising to me. He is pretty young (25 at most) and while he does have political experience, it's not certainly not the depth of experience that you would expect from a presidential campaign manager.

[Delta]

In a word, sucked. I almost felt sorry for him tonight. He may be crazy but his fall had to be kind of humiliating. I guess he can now go back to making lots of money and hanging with Judith/Judi.

And you'd be surprised at how many young bucks are running these campaigns. The pay is low and the hours are long and the travel is extensive so young people without other obligations can rise up the ladder fast if they are talented. That goes for a lot of DC, actually.

[diam124]

And you'd be surprised at how many young bucks are running these campaigns. The pay is low and the hours are long and the travel is extensive so young people without other obligations can rise up the ladder fast if they are talented. That goes for a lot of DC, actually.

I was really surprised how high up this guy was. He did have a White House internship in college so I guess that is a pretty big boost for him. FWIW I do live in the DC area and know several people who work as congressional aides but I've never heard of anyone that young having so much responsibility. I wonder who really came up with this strategy - I think it's been fairly obvious for a while now that it was a mistake.

[msnicolea]

This quote was in the Times today--kinds sums up the problem:

"He was too New York, too Italian, and he had too many wives."
DOROTHY KALIADES, of Queens, on the problems with Rudolph W. Giuliani’s presidential quest.