Iowa Caucus Results [Archive]

Rosebud

01-04-2008, 03:32 PM

Anyone have thoughts on the Iowa Caucus results and what they may mean as we head into the New Hampshire primary?

IOWA RESULTS

Democrat candidates

Barack Obama - 38 per cent
John Edwards - 30 per cent
Hillary Clinton - 29 per cent
Bill Richardson - 2 per cent
Joe Biden - 1 per cent
All other candidates scored less than 1 per cent

Republican candidates

Mike Huckabee - 34 per cent
Mitt Romney - 25 per cent
Fred Thompson - 13 per cent
John McCain - 13 per cent
Ron Paul - 10 per cent
Rudy Giuliani - 3 per cent
All other candidates scored less than 1 per cent

Iowa Caucus Results (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-obama-huckabee-iowa-win,0,1361510.story)

DES MOINES - In the end, Iowans voted for a smile. They chose conciliation over combat, personality over pedigree, hope over fear. They voted for the new, with fervor.

Whether that sets a tone for the campaign to come is far from certainâ€”in fact things could get harsh in a hurry. But at least on this cold night, there was a powerful suggestion that voters were intrigued by a different kind of politics, particularly independents who increasingly say they are weary of the old partisan fights.

It can be a mistake to make too much about the candidate anointed "President of Iowa" by the quaint and quirky precinct caucuses. Ask George H.W. Bush in 1980 or Bob Dole or Richard Gephardt in 1988. In the case of Barack Obama, though, it also could be a mistake to make too little of it.

jennylou

01-04-2008, 03:33 PM

What did everyone think of the Iowa Caucus last night?

For me, I was happy to see Obama and Edwards do so well. I like Clinton well enough, but think we need a change in the White House. I mean, it was Bush 1, Clinton, Clinton, Bush 2, Bush 2 - do we really need another Clinton right now?

jennylou

01-04-2008, 03:34 PM

LOL, we had the same thought! I merged the two together - particularly since you did a great job providing info and links. :)

LyLMyssChaos

01-04-2008, 04:11 PM

I have to say that I was really surprised by the Dem side. I knew that Obama was popular, but I didn't realize just how popular. And I am VERY happy about Huckabee's standing. I just hope it wasn't a fluke.

Delta

01-04-2008, 04:19 PM

The Clintons are self-destructing before our eyes.

Bill Clinton voiced his abiding anger at the media's coverage of him and his wife in Durham, N.H., today, and suggested that media bias will force Clinton to go negative on Barack Obama.

He also expressed his frustration that his wife is perceived by voters as divisive through, he said, no fault of her own.

......

"Nobody would like it better than us if you could get that personal vilification out of there, because nobody’s been vilified more than we have," he said, after noting that he thought Hillary and McCain could run a respectful campaign. "One of the problems with laying down and turning the other cheek is McCain had one dose of it. They gave it to us for eight years.

....

"Nobody would be happier to see all this go away than us. But you canâ€™t ask somebody who is at a breathtaking disadvantage in the information coming to the voters to ignore that disadvantage and basically agree to put bullets in their brains," he said.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Bills_reason_to_go_negative_media_bias.html

:rolleyes:

Have much more to say but I've already said so much on my LJ I'm a bit fatigued. Yay for Obama. Boo for Huckabee.

mimieliza

01-04-2008, 04:23 PM

Jenyfer9

01-04-2008, 05:36 PM

I got so many comments about my Obama button today... gee... I've only been wearing it on my coat since November folks (not much need for a coat before that).

I'm VERY pleased with the results on the Dem side, and I'm not surprised by the Rep. side at all.

bookworm

01-04-2008, 07:19 PM

I'm ok/neutral with the Dem side, but Huckabee? Really? I would guess he has no chance in NH, but SC will be a different story, and who knows where it will go from there. I'm torn between thinking "Great, he's nuts. Independents won't actually vote for him" and remembering that I felt the same way about Shrub last time, and that didn't go so well. I don't understand the appeal (of either of them)--they are in your business, and still spend money like it's going out of style (because, you know, if you don't put a multi-billion dollar war in the budget, it's not real money).

Delta

01-04-2008, 07:37 PM

I dunno, the first time Bush ran he had a pretty fiscally conservative and not-in-your-business record in Texas compared to Huck in Arkansas.
I kind of agree with Bill - there is a strong media bias against her, and the level of vitriol from the right towards her is really frightening.OK but Bill Clinton is basically blaming the media for the fact that his wife's campaign is about to go negative on Obama. It's fascinating to see him/them unraveling like this.

(And the vitriol towards Hillary is no more frightening than the vitriol from the left towards Bush. )

Huck will lose NH and win SC as he's already up 6-7 points in the polls there. He may even win Florida. But surely Rudy could prevail on Super Tuesday? Right? That's been his goal all along. But Florida was a major factor in that and right now he and Huck are neck and neck there. If not Rudy then hopefully the GOP will coalesce around another anti-Huck candidate.

bookworm

01-04-2008, 07:59 PM

I may actually go R in the primary and vote for Rudy. I don't care if the D is Hillary or Obama (and Biden is out of it and Richardson will be soon), and I'm not really worried about it being Edwards. The interesting question right now is whether McCain will be able to take NH (I'm leaning towards yes), and what that will mean for Romney. If he doesn't win Iowa, NH, or SC, how long does he stay viable? (Apparently there is a caucus in Wyoming now-ish as well--why don't we hear about this one?)

And I disagree about the Hillary/Bush vitriol---I think the anger against Hillary is more irrational (maybe you're saying "of course YOU do"--but I do think there is an element of "get back in the kitchen"), but that doesn't make it less real. I actually suspect she'd make the best president of the group (R or D), but I'm not sure she could get elected.

Delta

01-04-2008, 08:12 PM

I am pretty sure McCain will win NH. He and Romney were neck and neck but Romney is fading. Some of McCain's independent support could be siphoned off to Obama, though, now that's he's hot.

I wish the GOP would wake up and get behind Thompson. Who cares if he doesn't like kissing voters' butts. I actually like that about him. There's no BS there. He can satisfy all 3 of the major Republican groups in a reasonable way - hawks, fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. And he's the only candidate out of ANY of them who is being a realist and an adult about the coming entitlement crisis.

bookworm

01-04-2008, 08:24 PM

Is Thompson even still running? I'm still on record as independent in NH (though I haven't lived/voted there in awhile), so my parents get calls for me from everyone and her mother, and not a peep from Thompson.

Does McCain have traction anywhere else? Can he get it? I haven't paid much attention since he cut 90% of his staff 6 months ago. He'd win the general (I have mixed feelings about that, but I'm not much of a gambler).

Delta

01-04-2008, 08:43 PM

Thompson is not putting any effort into NH - he's going for SC at this point. He's also probably broke.

McCain may get traction if he becomes the anti-Huck. He's actually in the lead in a recent national poll or two (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html).

I also wanted to say that I'd be pulling for Obama on the D side no matter who was running against him. Someone like him comes along once in a generation. The fact that it's the Clintons (ie Bill, "the first black president") losing to him just makes that much sweeter.

paiger

01-04-2008, 09:28 PM

(And the vitriol towards Hillary is no more frightening than the vitriol from the left towards Bush. )

This might be off topic, but I have to say that I disagree with this. While I am not a Hillary supporter at all, I do think she is getting the powerful woman bitch rap worse than she did when she was First Lady. Maybe it's where I'm located (south), but the comments I hear about Hillary are not anything about her education, experience, or beliefs and some are seriously grotesque. I think it's really sad.

paiger

01-04-2008, 09:33 PM

I don't see the edit button, but I will have to say also that my perspective is probably skewed as I'm in a male profession myself. And, I'm of the opinion that gender shouldn't be an issue really, so harping on things b/c she's a woman isn't something I think should be mentioned. I like to be viewed as just a 'person' at work not a female. That's why I don't equate it to Bush, b/c I see people picking on his decisions whether past or present not on being a man.

msnicolea

01-05-2008, 09:13 AM

Agreed, ardathpaige--she gets attacked differently and specifically because she's a woman--and it's disturbing.

Anna Low

01-05-2008, 12:50 PM

I too disagree about the Hilary/Bush vitriol. Truthfully, I just don't get why people despise her so much. What exactly did she do that was so disturbing? I think perhaps some of it is because she is a brilliant and successful woman, viewed by her husband not as the "little lady" but as an equal intellectual partner. I think that scares the pants off of most men, as maybe their own "little ladies" might start believing they also deserve the same consideration. It's funny - we have friends who would benefit greatly from her stance on healthcare. Yet, they refuse to vote for her because they feel she is a "witch". They can't cite one thing she has done to deserve this label.

I will vote for any democrat that is nominated. However, I believe that Hilary would be a fantastic president and will support her all the way.

As for Bushie, where would one even begin? So many reasons, so little time....

ysolde

01-05-2008, 01:00 PM

I agree completely with Anna Low. Heck, early in her fist term as First Lady, my own father called her the "b" word. I asked him what she had done to make her a "b". He really could not come up with anything, except that she seemed "uppity" for a first lady. I said something along the lines of, "You mean she went to school, worked hard at it, graduated, became a lawyer, and worked hard at that, all the while volunteering for certain causes she truly believed in? Daddy, doesn't that sound an awful lot like me?" That really to him aback. He was so used to the rigid societal norms for women of a certain birth and class, that he never realized that times had changed radically, as embodied by his own daughter and all of my friends.

Unfortunately, there are still men (and women) who view any educated, successful, goal-oriented woman as too big for her britches, if you'll pardon the expression.

thedoorchick

01-05-2008, 01:12 PM

(And the vitriol towards Hillary is no more frightening than the vitriol from the left towards Bush. )
I agree 100% with this, no surprise probably. Of course, those on the left with the vitriol towards Bush doubtless don't see it that way. I don't mean any disrespect, just that after so many years of Bush-bashing, for understandable reasons and puzzling ones, it's hard to imagine a hard line Dem really admitting that any of the bashing towards him might be less than reasonable.

We'll all never agree, of course. Just an observation.

I also take exception to the notion that women as equal intellectual partners and women as supportive of their husbands are mutually exclusive. Maybe I'm just tired of the "stepford" comments re: Laura Bush. She's a smart cookie, and gets little credit for such.

I don't dislike Hilary because she's smart. I'll never deny that she is. But I do think that she would be a terrible president. And her claims that she has loads of experience due to having been first lady are amusing to me. Pillow talk does not leader experience make.

I like Huckabee, but the talk about (against!) his faith bothers me, as I see many people writing him off strictly because of that. I fear that if he is nominated, that will turn voters away. It shouldn't, but I know it will.

My first choice has always been Thompson. But I don't see it happening.

MidwesternGal

01-05-2008, 01:34 PM

Well, being from Iowa and all, I just had to come in and comment. . .

ITA re: people's reactions to Hillary.

I think it's definitely more "personal" bashing with regards to Hillary versus much more policy bashing and job performance bashing with Bush. When people complain about her, it's usually "Oh she's a B*, you don't want a Clinton in office again;" when people bash Bush, it's much more "look at XYZ in Iraq, look at ABC here at home." KWIM?

This is what I always argue: If a *man* comes along and has strong convictions, tends to be perhaps a bit blunt, strong-willed, and works extremely hard for what he believes in--he'd be hailed as presidential material and considered to have exceptional leadership qualities!!!

I do have to disagree somewhat re: majority of men/older men hating Hillary. I have heard *plenty* of women bashing Hillary (in fact, I haven't heard ONE man bash her, and probably at least 20-30 women!)--it's like they can't accept that a women has made it to the top--that she just MUST be such a B* to be able to get that far. I'm sorry but pansy arse wimpy women who play nicey-nice all the time aren't likely to even pursue a position such as this, let alone be a contender!!!!

I went to a NY day dinner party and one of the women there was a Hillary spokesperson, and she said that a large, large number of people on her call list for the caucus were older men.

As for my own personal belifs--I'm a huge Hillary fan. Not so sure about Obama--maybe a better candidate for 2012, a little more experience. While being "outside" the system is good, you still need to know how to get things done. A lot of the ads run here are much more "cheerleaderish" (yay, go US, we're united as one, not red and blue, etc etc) than actually saying things about his convictions and policies--seems to be kind of hard to figure out exactly where he stands on things.

However. . . . I also recognize that people love to hate Hillary (unfortunately!), so I feel Edwards is the best overall candidate to beat out whatever Rep. ends up being the nominee.

As for the Republican side of things:

I feel that McCain or Thompson would make the most moderate candidate for the Republicans--Huckabee, um, wow, I cannot believe the support he has. Unreal. I don't even want to go into how I feel about him, since I don't want to start this into a debate thread, and I like to play nice! :)

Anywhoo, I'm kind of glad things will settle down here for a while. I'm very curious to watch the rest of the nation, esp. with the kind of shaken up Rep. race--almost like it could be any one of 5 people at this point, depending on what state you're in! The top 3 Dems are pretty much obvious at this point.

MidwesternGal

01-05-2008, 01:42 PM

originally from thedoorchick:

but the talk about (against!) his faith bothers me,

To me, politics and religion should be kept seperate and I do not talk against Huckabee solely because of his faith, but more along the lines he won't be able to keep his faith OUT of the office--and where does that leave all the non-Christian/non-Baptist people in this nation?

I think faith is great, and more power to him if he has strong faith. But I don't think that having religion or not having it, or having the wrong kind, or the right kind, is what we should base our votes upon.

The media has definitely jumped on the whole religion thing this election, what with all the talk about Romney's Mormonism and Huckabee's Christian views. How about we all talk about their healthcare policies, their qualifications, their international experiences??? That all has a LOT more relevance to me than what church they happen to attend!!!

thedoorchick

01-05-2008, 02:39 PM

ysolde

01-05-2008, 02:45 PM

Midwesterngal, I agree with all your comments. Well, except the ones about talking against Huckabee. ;)

Honestly I wish Romney's Mormonism would become less of an issue. I do think he is a solid choice but people just seem put off by him.

I have no problem with Romney's Mormonism. His personal beliefs did not interfere with legislation in MA regarding gay marriage, as far as I know.

What bothers me about Romney is his utter inability to tell us where he stands on, well, anything.

As for Huckabee, I really don't care that he is Baptist (except insofar as the last Baptist we elected was not a great president ;)). I care very deeply about his lousy record in Arkansas, as well as his abuse of power in covering up for his son (a son who now thinks it's acceptable to carry a gun while traveling by air -- good job teaching him that criminal actions have no consequences!).

cynder

01-05-2008, 05:27 PM

I agree with the majority opinion that Clinton gets treated somewhat unfairly due to her female status. In order to give perspective why I don't like Clinton, it is not because she is a female or because she is a b**** or power hungry. Right now I have a real problem with her revisionist history of her years in the White House (don't believe me , search for the recent Today show clip where she talks about being "high-profile American to go into Bosnia" as if she was part of a political peacekeeping mission. Sounded good until Meredith Viera said that it was part of entertainment troop...with Sinbad.)

And now that she lost in Iowa she is changing her rhetoric...
Clinton usually only talks about the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks when she speaks of her work helping Ground Zero workers cope with medical problems. But in an airport hangar this morning, she said: "We have people who are plotting against us right now, getting ready to repeat the atrocity of Sept 11. We know it, I see the intelligence reports." She also said, "I don’t think there has ever been a more important decision for the citizens of New Hampshire."

I don't begrudge her changing her tactics. If somehow she is the democratic nomination, I will probably vote for her. But dang, after years of Bushes and Clinton, we sure as heck need a change. (Ok, not Huckabee change though)

cynder

01-05-2008, 05:30 PM

Gah! Am I the only one with no Edit button. I am horrible typist so if this is the way CC is going, I am not going to last long here.

Just wanted to added that I believe the above quote is from the NY Times but not sure because I read way to many papers yesterday and the above quote was from an IM conversation.

Also, not entire saying Clinton is a b**** or power hungry but that is the perception of her in the public.

diam124

01-05-2008, 05:40 PM

I just flat-out do not like Hillary. I do think she is extremely intelligent, but something about her comes across as very insincere and condescending to me. I always feel like rolling my eyes when I hear her speeches. For me it's a personality thing, not a gender thing.

I'm really hoping that John McCain does well in NH as I generally vote Republican and I do not like Huckabee or Romney. If one of them were the Republican nominee I think I would vote for Obama (if he was the Dem. nominee).

Delta

01-06-2008, 12:12 AM

OK now it's one thing to say that Hillary gets it harder from right wing partisans and another to say she gets it harder for being a woman. I've always said that her gender hurts her much more than Obama's race hurts him.

In fact I think Obama's race is actually a positive for him. I think Americans want to move beyond the old racial issues and perhaps electing a black man as president could take us there. It seems to me that the group most dubious that it could happen are blacks, but now that they see he can win in lily-white Iowa its giving them hope (ack! that word again!) There was an article in the NYT about this today.

I feel in my heart and my mind right now that Obama is going to be our next President. If Huck is the nominee I will be voting for Obama. Here is why I feel I can support him as a Republican:

- By not playing the race card Obama could do mcu to repair racial divisions in this country. And what a role model he would be for young black men, the most maligned and in need of help and hope demographic in this country right now.

- He is of the world and would do much to repair the US's standing internationally.

- He is a coalition builder and is already, even in the primaries, inviting Republicans to support him.

Delta

01-06-2008, 12:24 AM

This no editing problem SUCKS! I hit enter way before I meant to. Ugh.

Anyway, as I was saying.

Based even on his limited record in Illinois and the US Senate you can see his talents at bringing people together to actually make things happen. (Man I am sounding so lib.)

Here is why, as a Republican, I would have a problem supporting him:

- His tax policies with a Dem Congress
- His judicial appointments

Now, his foreign policy stance is interesting. He of course was against the Iraq war from the beginning and has made a vague promise of taking out the troops when elected. Well what if a year from now immense progress is being made militarily and politically and Petraus asks for more time and Obama gives it to him. Are the anti-war folks going to freak? This will be very interesting to watch.

Now, if he picks Edwards as VP that would really give me the most pause. Edwards represents everything about 'progressivism' that I can't stand - populist demagogy.

Delta

01-06-2008, 12:40 AM

thedoorchick - I think what turns so many people off from Huckabee is his use of his faith to garner votes. It's not his faith that is the problem, it's his exploitation of it. He seems to have clamped down on it in NH but in Iowa he was all over the place with it. Now that he is in NH (Live Free or Die) he is also now talking about his belief that government should stay out of people's business yet he supports a national smoking ban and he's touting limited government despite his record to the contrary in Arkansas. He's so shifty but his charm is blinding.

thedoorchick

01-06-2008, 06:38 AM

I think what turns so many people off from Huckabee is his use of his faith to garner votes. It's not his faith that is the problem, it's his exploitation of it.
See, I have heard an awful lot of people saying "he's an evangelical Christian and that in itself scares me." Nothing about him leveraging his faith into votes. Just because it exists. And that's just wrong. As I was saying to DH, Huckabee may be the most open about his faith but that doesn't necessarily mean he's the strongest in his faith. If a person is scared about a nominee *just* because s/he's a Christian - well, how do we really know what is in anyone's heart?

I agree with your comments on how you could support Obama as a Republican and I'm on board with that. However, it's difficult for me to imagine supporting a candidate who is as liberal as Obama on as many issues as he is. His value as a role model and as someone to bring the country together, I can see. But I simply flat-out disagree with him on just about any real issue I can think of, and that's why I can't imagine ever voting for him.

msnicolea

01-06-2008, 11:18 AM

I have to say, as much as I dislike Huckabee's politics, he strikes me as decent an honest. I loved what he said about Obama last night--very classy. I thought Romney looked like the flip-flop carsalesman he is, but I actually started to feel sorry for him re: the piling on the others were doing.

I thought Clinton, Edwards, and Obama all did very well @ different times--and I thought Obama looked and sounded extremely presidential, which makes me so happy.

Delta, the idea of you voting for Obama just made my day!!! Now if only thedoorchick would cross over. . .

BlackMagicRose

01-06-2008, 12:05 PM

Can I ask a very serious question to all of you Obama supporters out there; what does he stand for? What in his message makes you want to vote for him? I am an American living overseas so I do not get to see a lot of the speeches (does anyone know a good internet source for this?). All I hear in his speeches so far is; let's change, we will make american better,and everyone is ready for change. No shit!!!! Please give me some substance Obama!!! Clinton is giving me the same feeling to. There is no real substance in what she says and I hate it that I have to go to their websites to find out where they stand on the issues!

I must stand up for my man Edwards. He is the only canidate that is speaking about the issues in the majority of his speeches. He has a real plan for health care, education (oh, that is the only thing I know about Obama, he wants to increase sallaries for teachers, which I also agree with), the war in Iraq, and many others.

So, please, Obama people convince me!!! Why should I vote for Obama??

kristin

01-06-2008, 02:45 PM

Can you imagine how civil a race between Huckabee and Obama would be? They both strike me an incredibly honest men with such grace and integrity. I don't know if the media could handle it!

That being said, I'd vote for McCain right now. The most important issues to me right now are the war and immigration. And believe me, it pains me to say that - my DH just got notified that he may be called up from the IRR (Inactive Ready Reserve) afer being out of the Army for 8 years. Damn priciples.

phoenics

01-06-2008, 03:51 PM

I am very, VERY excited. I have always dreaded a general election with Clinton as the Dem candidate, even though I like her very much. I kind of agree with Bill - there is a strong media bias against her, and the level of vitriol from the right towards her is really frightening.

Anyway, I love Obama! He gives me hope. :)

I agree with everything you said. I love Hilary (loved Bill too), but Obama just seems like a breath of fresh air and like he really WOULD change the old guard... but at the same time, it isn't like the Clintons didn't bring a lot of change themselves.

Delta

01-06-2008, 07:55 PM

Here (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html)are the new NH polls out tonight. Obama is now up by more than 10 there. McCain is also surging a bit.

Huck was not good on tonight's Fox debate. Romney kicked butt.

Anna Low

01-07-2008, 06:57 AM

I also believe that Huckabee is a decent man. And as much as I loathe all of the religion shilling that has been going on, I truly believe he is sincere when he speaks of his beliefs. (They should play no part in the election, but that is a different conversation.) But, I also believe he is grossly underqualified to be president.

LyLMyssChaos

01-07-2008, 07:57 AM

ugggh, I had this huge post and my window crashed!

To sum it up for now;

I think that of the 3 top dems, Obama is the one I could live with. I don't agree with him on many fronts, but I do think that he would able to work with his opponents in an amicable fashion. I don't see the bottlenecking being so bad with him in office. I think he'd find a middle ground and he might actually be a uniting factor.

I am still pulling for Huckabee and I will be voting for a Rep, but I would be ok with Obama in office, so that's who I am pulling for on the Dem side.