Anyone know odds of going into labor on a given week?

[SarahKatG]

Does anyone know the percentage chance that a woman would go into labor during a particular week in her pregnancy? Particularly for a second birth?

The reason I ask is MIL is planning on travelling across the country during weeks 38 and 39 of this pregnancy. She seems to think that either I'll still be a week from delivering or there will be a sign (contractions, doctor's note on progress) that will be enough to get her back in time. With DD1, I was induced at 38 weeks so I don't know what my body would have done otherwise.

I did a search on here and found the poll on what week your baby was born but it didn't differentiate going into labor on one's own versus being induced (according to that poll, btw, 60% of babies were born by week 39).

[Tonysweetie]

Hmmm interesting question. I'm looking forward to seeing some answers on this. Thanks for posting!

[petdoc08]

I don't know actual facts-but I have my experience. My mom was visiting us during week 38 of my preganancy. I wne to my weekly checkup while she was here and doc said was was 50-70% effaced (don't remember exactly but it was a bit) and 3 cm. He thought I would go any day. Well, a MONTH later I was induced. My mom stayed the whole.entire.month.

[SarahKatG]

Wow, petdoc! That is a long visit! And that's amazing that you went that long already at 3cm.

I know that labor is basically completely unpredictable. I just know there has to be a number out there of how many babies are born during weeks 38 and 39 and I haven't been able to find it.

[kimthebride]

This is so hard to estimate. I'd say talking to your OB is the best way to get a reference point. For example, talk about why you were induced with #1...the accuracy of your date of conception/due date...your mom's L&D experiences, etc.

[SarahKatG]

Hi Kim,
Well, I had an appointment today and it doesn't look like induction will be necessary (DD1 had a very large head, DD2 is large but smaller). The accuracy of my due date is definitely correct (charting) and unfortunently I can't say anything about my mom's l&d. I personally have a feeling that I won't be early and may be late, based on the fact that at induction with DD1 I was only a fingertip dilated at 38 weeks and the cervadil actually failed the first time. I definitely had the impression she wasn't ready to come out so going by that feeling, MIL's trip shouldn't be a problem. I'm just one of those people who love stats :)

[ejs]

While I was pregnant, I learned that less than 5% of women deliver on their due date. I know that's not the stat you were looking for, but that's all I've got! :)

[kimthebride]

I'm just one of those people who love stats :)
Lol! If you saw all my lists, you'd know I drive my OB nuts asking about stats and chances and percentages and timeframes. My DH just sits there in the background saying "babe, there's a waiting room of people out there...cut it out" ;) . So I totally understand.
I hope it all works out for you!

[Txfish]

All I know is personal experience -- with both kids I showed next to no sign of being anywhere near ready at recent appts, and went into labor 1 day late, and 3 days early. (Seriously, I hadn't budged a bit effacement/dilation wise for over 3 weeks at my last appt, and went full on into labor 2 days later. I even told my mom NOT to come that weekend as she had intended, expecting to have to get induced the next Friday -- she had to jump in the car at 6am Monday, and didn't make it in time.)

[usafwife]

I don't know any actual facts either. I had an appt at 40w4d and didn't really show any signs of labor going to happen soon. I had a NST and bio-physical profile u/s later that day. Based on those (they weren't bad but my OB didn't really want me going much longer due to predicted size of baby) and a few other issues we decided to schedule an induction for two days later. I went into labor in the middle of the night.

With DS I was feeling fine at 34 wks but the day I hit 35 wks it was the total opposite. I spent 5 hours in L&D due to contractions and being dilated to 2 cm. They all didn't think I'd make it 38 wks. I spent the next two wks very miserable due to the contractions, continuing to dilate, and DS getting even lower than he had been (if that was possible). I went into labor at 37 wks.

[sue-bert]

Lol! If you saw all my lists, you'd know I drive my OB nuts asking about stats and chances and percentages and timeframes. My DH just sits there in the background saying "babe, there's a waiting room of people out there...cut it out" ;) . So I totally understand.
Count me among your fellow sympathizers.
I started grilling my ob/gyn about false positive stats when she asked me about the AFP triple test. She was rather ill-equipped to answer any of my (many) statistically-oriented questions. Finally, she broke down, exasperated, and asked, "Um, what do you do for a living?" (I'm an engineer.)

I had a similar sitiation to that of the OP in that my mother was flying in from overseas to be with me after DS was born, and in scheduling her flight, she just assumed that I *had* to give birth by my due date -- after all I was due! (And just like I never have overdue library books, I could not possibly have an overdue baby!).

The irony is that in the end I did give birth on my exact due date, so all my efforts to patiently explain to her that the due date is just a best estimate, blah, blah, blah went right out the window. :rolleyes: