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TracieB
07-04-2006, 06:12 PM
This is so scary...

N. Korea long-range missile fails in test launch
Rogue country sends at least five rockets into the Sea of Japan

Updated: 7:26 p.m. ET July 4, 2006

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration said Tuesday five missiles were fired by North Korea in what it called a provocation, but not an immediate threat to the United States.

“We do consider it provocative behavior,” National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said.

Four of the five missiles were short range, but the other was a long-range missile — which failed after 35 seconds — that U.S. officials believe is capable of reaching the United States. The short-range missiles landed in the Sea of Japan.

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, told reporters, "The North Koreans have again clearly isolated themselves."

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice planned to confer, starting tonight, with her counterparts from China, Japan, South Korea and Russia, over the missile firings, according to the State Department.

The test firings included a long-range Taepodong-2, the communist nation's most advanced missile with a range of up to 9,320 miles, and five shorter-range missiles, said Hadley.

A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the missile launches were "no immediate threat to the U.S."

In Colorado, the North American Aerospace Defense Command was put on heightened alert, or "Bravo-Plus" status, slightly higher than a medium threat level, on Monday in anticipation of possible activities by North Korea, said Michael Kucharek, a NORAD spokesman in Colorado Springs.

NORAD and the U.S. Northern Command is responsible for defending U.S. territory.

President Bush has been in consultation with Rice, Hadley and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. Christopher Hill, assistant secretary of state, is set to head to the region on Wednesday, and Hadley is to meet with his South Korean counterpart, a meeting in Washington that already had been scheduled, Snow said.

The test firings, which are seen as a provocation by the United States and other nations trying to get North Korea to submit to a verifiable nuclear program, occurred as Americans were celebrating Independence Day.

The reclusive communist nation's action came after weeks of speculation that it was preparing to test its Taepodong 2 missile. The preparations prompted warnings from the United States and Japan, which had threatened possible economic sanctions in response.

The launch came after weeks of speculation that the North was preparing to test the Taepodong-2 from a site on its northeast coast. The preparations had generated stern warnings from the United States and Japan, which had threatened possible economic sanctions in response.

“North Korea has gone ahead with the launch despite international protest,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said. “That is regrettable from the standpoint of Japan’s security, the stability of international society, and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.”

North Korea's arsenal

A look at some of North Korea’s missiles:
— TAEPODONG-2: Said to be North Korea’s most advanced missile, with a range of up to 9,320 miles. Experts estimate it could potentially hit the mainland United States with a small payload. However, the missile is unlikely to be accurate.
— TAEPODONG-1: North Korea is believed to have test-launched this long-range missile in August 1998. The second stage landed off Japan’s eastern coast. The missile has an estimated range of up to 1,800 miles.
— RODONG: As many as 200 Rodong missiles are in North Korea’s arsenal. With a range of about 620 miles, Japan is their most likely target. The missiles can be fired from mobile launchers.
— SCUD: North Korea reportedly has more than 600 Scud-type missiles that are relatively short-range and would potentially target South Korea.

The missiles all landed hundreds of miles away from Japan and there were no reports the missiles caused damage within Japanese territory, Abe said.

He said the first missile was launched at about 3:30 a.m. Wednesday, or about 2:30 p.m. Tuesday EDT. The two others were launched at bout 4 a.m. and 5 a.m., he said.

If the timing is correct, the North Korean missiles were launched within minutes of Tuesday’s liftoff of Discovery, which blasted into orbit from Cape Canaveral in the first U.S. space shuttle launch in a year.

It was not clear which launch was the long-range missile. The Japanese government was unable to confirm the report by U.S. officials that a Taepodong-2 was fired.

Han Song Ryol, deputy chief of North Korea’s mission to the U.N. in New York, told The Associated Press in a telephone interview: “We diplomats do not know what the military is doing.”

North Korea’s missile program is based on Scud technology provided by the former Soviet Union or Egypt, according to American and South Korean officials. North Korea started its Rodong-1 missile project in the late 1980s and test-fired the missile for the first time in 1993.

North Korea had observed a moratorium on long-range missile launches since 1999. It shocked the world in 1998 by firing a Taepodong missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean.

On Monday, the North’s main news agency quoted an unidentified newspaper analyst as saying Pyongyang was prepared to answer a U.S. military attack with “a relentless annihilating strike and a nuclear war.”

The Bush administration responded by saying while it had no intention of attacking, it was determined to protect the United States if North Korea launched a long-range missile.

On Monday, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns warned North Korea against firing the missile and urged the communist country to return to six-nation talks on its nuclear program.

The six-party talks, suspended by North Korea, involved negotiations by the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia with Pyongyang over the country’s nuclear program.

The United States and its allies South Korea and Japan have taken quick steps over the past week to strengthen their missile defenses. Washington and Tokyo are working on a joint missile-defense shield, and South Korea is considering the purchase of American SM-2 defensive missiles for its destroyers.

The U.S. and North Korea have been in a standoff over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program since 2002. The North claims to have produced nuclear weapons, but that claim has not been publicly verified by outside analysts.

While public information on North Korea’s military capabilities is murky, experts doubt that the regime has managed to develop a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on its long-range missiles.

Nonetheless, Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told U.S. lawmakers last week that officials took the potential launch reports seriously and were looking at the full range of capabilities possessed by North Korea.

© 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13704198/

MLA
07-05-2006, 06:37 AM
Not good. Not good at all. Boy, am I glad that our military is bogged down in Iraq right now. :rolleyes:

December27JJB
07-05-2006, 07:15 AM
That is really scary!

KarenS
07-05-2006, 08:38 AM
Yeah, I love this part from the CNN article:

On Monday, North Korea's state-run media accused the United States of harassing it and vowed to respond to any pre-emptive attack "with a relentless annihilating strike and a nuclear war with a mighty nuclear deterrent."

Karen

allyray231
07-05-2006, 09:04 AM
It is scary-but he did the same thing in the 90s. He is looking for money to keep his quiet. We would never invade NK-it isn't going to happen.

KarenS
07-05-2006, 09:15 AM
Oh of course we won't. But if NK doesn't take care, they're going to find themselves occupied by Japan again ... which would be a disaster for the Eastern Asian countries.

K.

allyray231
07-05-2006, 09:22 AM
Oh of course we won't. But if NK doesn't take care, they're going to find themselves occupied by Japan again ... which would be a disaster for the Eastern Asian countries.

K.

ITA. And don't forget China. I don't think they are very happy right now.

chefker
07-05-2006, 09:28 AM
I hope this is an unlikely scenario, but I was thinking what would happen, if some Iraqi insurgents got it in their heads to join forces with the North Koreans, and possibly help to finance their nuclear operations. We'd definitely be f'ed, in that instance.

KarenS
07-05-2006, 09:30 AM
I don't think it's likely that Iraqi insurgents or terrorists would team up with the Koreans. I really don't. The Koreans are infidels just as much as any other non Muslim people ... I just can't see it happening.

k.

chefker
07-05-2006, 09:33 AM
I don't think it's likely that Iraqi insurgents or terrorists would team up with the Koreans. I really don't. The Koreans are infidels just as much as any other non Muslim people ... I just can't see it happening.

k.


Oh, probably not. That's just my 'what if/worst case scenario' brain at work. :rolleyes:

In any case, this is pretty frightening stuff. I can't imagine the Japanese or the Chinese are any too pleased with the North Koreans right now. Not to mention the Russians...another nearby superpower.

paulinaaa
07-05-2006, 10:37 AM
At present they reckon that the short range missiles (all six of them now) were SCUD variants, and one Taepodong 2 was fired.

I would be wary of assuming that the North Koreans just can't build a proper rocket motor. They may have cut short the test so that the rest of the world cannot get a clear picture of the capabilities of their missiles.

I'm also intrigued as to why they fired off a lot of short range missiles at the same time. The obvious suggestion is that they were trying to disguise the launch of the Taepodong as another SCUD launch, but they must have known that Western technology would see through that.

Then again, although a lot of news reports say the same thing, I think they're mostly quoting each other. How sure are we that the Taepodong was launched? Could we be so hyped up about the idea that they might have launched it that we saw the glow and concluded that one of the missiles must have been the Taepodong, even though it didn't travel much further than the rest? I doubt this is the case, but I can't be sure.

Delta
07-05-2006, 09:32 PM
I don't think this is 'scary' so much as it is just another complication in the whole NK crisis and the diplomatic relations between countries that have to deal with it. The long-range missile failed for one thing. Second, if NK were to actually hit the US (or Japan or South Korea, etc.) we would obliterate the Pyongyang and Kim knows that.

Personally, I think his sense of humor is...messed up - doing this on the 4th of July and also timed with the shuttle launch.

em1126
07-06-2006, 07:28 AM
From CNN.com
U.N. Security Council members denounced the tests and said they are considering a draft resolution -- presented by Japan -- that would impose sanctions on the Communist nation's missile program.

The resolution would prevent nations from providing money, materials and technology that could contribute to North Korea's "missile and other weapons of mass destruction programs."

But China and Russia have expressed the desire for a weaker statement -- something that would avoid sanctions and the weight of international law.

"This is the view of the international community, that actions taken should be constructive to maintaining peace in that part of the world," Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya said.

China is one of five permanent council members, including Russia, with veto power and, as North Korea's neighbor, is Pyongyang's main provider of food, oil and economic aid. (Security Council facts)

ITA. And don't forget China. I don't think they are very happy right now.

China may not be very happy right now, but apparently they're also not willing to go with the sanctions proposed by Japan and the U.N. Scary stuff.

paulinaaa
07-07-2006, 01:07 AM
I don't think the North Koreans think anyone will become less hostile. Most analyses that I've seen suggests that they are looking for more bargaining muscle - not just from the simple threat of missiles flying if people don't give in to them, but from the diplomatic angle. If they are off their rocker, it is everyone else's responsibility to try to find a diplomatic solution, which may well mean making compromises.

jnettie
07-07-2006, 10:10 AM
China and Russia are both friendly with NK, and apparently neither (or at least China doesn't) wants sanctions. And China has veto power in the UN, so if the UN does decide on sanctions, they can stop it anyway. At the same time, I'm pretty sure China isn't happy, though.

This is totally an attention move. NK wants to be a powerhouse, and no one takes them seriously otherwise.

Most of all, I'm rather irritated with Bush. He never seems serious about Korea. Lately, he's been rather flipant. Yeah, good move. There's a little country with the bomb who wants to be taken seriously, and you're treating them like a puppy that's peed on the rug. Nice.

Little Angel '77
07-07-2006, 07:17 PM
I think what's probably scarier is the fact that we can't shoot them down.
(note to self, don't move to SF.)

Jnetti, I agree that he was just saying "ha! look at the toys I have. Typical guy :)"

My friend in the Air Force is staying with me this week and we were talking about this at length, and he use to be in charge of the missle silous (spelling) in another part of the country. He said that the US doesn't have the capibility to shoot those missles down if one was to reach us. We would have 45 minute window to."try" but those missles move at 6 to 7 THOUSAND MPH! The chances of hitting one is not really likely. Although, you have to love the news. NBC news said the US thinks they could likely or propbably shoot one down. Way to downplay it George! As my friend said "ha! Fat chance!"

KarenS
07-07-2006, 07:54 PM
Well ... unless your friend in the AF has top secret clearance, I wouldn't take his word as Gospel. :) I personally believe we have capablities that the average soldier (sailor, pilot, Marine, etc.) isn't privy to. I have a friend who was Naval intelligence (she speaks fluent Russian and isn't allowed to tell what, exactly, she did in the Navy). She has told me before that there's a lot of stuff out there that very, very, very few people know about - even within the military.

Karen

Little Angel '77
07-07-2006, 08:10 PM
Oh I am sure he doesn't know all of it. He was an officer,( LT) and the stuff he told me is amazing :) Nothing that's top secret, but stuff you don't hear about. Only if the news got half of it right...:rolleyes:
His point about shooting down a missle is that it's moving at 6 to 7 thousand MPH, and you first have to see it, then fire at it, and then try to hit it :) It's a tiny needle flying through the sky at that rate. We can absolutely try to shoot it down, and we have the capabilities, but it's not as easy as you'd think.

paulinaaa
07-08-2006, 04:21 PM
I don't know anyone in the US military, but from what I have heard there is a system that they've been testing recently to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles. Unfortunately the tests have only had about a 50% success rate, which is a bit low for comfort if the nukes are inbound.

A ballistic missile is easiest to shoot down soon after launch, with the engines fighting to overcome gravity. Shooting it down when it's tumbling out of the sky is the old shooting bullets scenario. The best hope is to launch as many interceptor missiles as possible and hope that one hits. It is quite likely that this is why the US navy now has several surface to air missile capable ships in its base at Yokosuka, Japan.

TracieB
07-09-2006, 07:44 PM
I absolutely believe our military could shoot down a missile like that. Call me naive, but I really do believe that.

jnettie
07-09-2006, 07:49 PM
I don't want to be in a situation to find out.

TracieB
07-10-2006, 12:02 AM
Very true... me either!