Your Oscar Predictions: Care to Share?

[lawyerlee]

With the Oscars coming up on Sunday, I've been making a mad dash to see as many nominated movies and performances as I can between now and then. It's great that so many have come out on DVD in time!

I thought it would be fun to share our predictions for the winners. If there is a difference between who you think *should* win and who you think *will* win, share that too. :)

2006 Oscar Nominees (http://www.ew.com/ew/report/0,6115,1154546_1||1145818_0_,00.html)
Entertainment Weekly

Here are mine:

Best Film: Brokeback Mountain
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: Terrence Howard (should win); Heath Ledger (will win)
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal (should win); George Clooney (will win)
Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams (should win); Rachel Weisz (will win)
Best Original Screenplay: Match Point (should win); Crash (will win)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Foreign Language Film: No idea, but if anyone else does, feel free to share! I listened to an amazing piece on Fresh Air last week about Tsotsi, and I'm dying to see that one, but I haven't really heard much about the others.
Documentary Feature: Murderball (should win); March of the Penguins (will win)

[Sophia]

Oh, I usually love guessing the Oscar winners, but I'm so out of the loop this year, I don't know if I'd be able to make realistic guesses.

[lawyerlee]

Oh, I usually love guessing the Oscar winners, but I'm so out of the loop this year, I don't know if I'd be able to make realistic guesses.
I totally hear you. That is how I've felt the past couple of years, but this year I've been able to see a lot of films. I guess being at home sick is good for something! ;) :)

So far, I've seen:

- Brokeback Mountain
- Hustle & Flow
- Walk the Line
- North Country
- Crash
- Match Point
- The Constant Gardener
- Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
- Batman Begins
- Murderball

I'm watching Junebug right now. And I'm still hoping to see Capote and Pride & Prejudice before Sunday.

Unfortunately, Goodnight, and Good Luck, which I'd really like to see, doesn't come out on DVD until March 14.

[Sophia]

I think the only film I've seen with a "big" nomination is Pride & Prejudice. All the films we saw this year are action type movies (King Kong, Batman Begins, etc). *sigh*

[msnicolea]

I am almost positive that Philip Seymour Hoffman will win for Capote--I think it's a lock! Her's what I submitted to a local contest:

Best Film: Brokeback Mountain
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Best Original Screenplay: Crash
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Foreign Language Film: No pick (wasn't a category and I have no idea!)
Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins

[ysolde]

I am really rooting for Murderball, which was produced by an associate at my firm.

[lawyerlee]

I am really rooting for Murderball, which was produced by an associate at my firm.
How cool! It was a really great film. :)

[kam]

Best Film: Brokeback Mountain
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney (will win), Matt Dillon (should win)
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weiss (will win), Michelle Williams (should win)
Best Original Screenplay: Crash
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain (will win); History of Violence (should win)
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Foreign Language Film: clueless
Documentary Feature: Murderball

[Rosebud]

I am really rooting for Murderball, which was produced by an associate at my firm.


This was my #1 favorite movie of 2005-- and one of the best movies I've seen in years, frankly. I've seen all the films nominated in major categories this year and think Murderball is the best of the lot. I will really be mad if it doesn't win best Doc.


Here were my picks on my Oscar ballot-- who I think will win, not who I'd like to win. (Personal favs in parenthesis). Ususally I do really well on these, although I'm less confident this year.

Supporting Actor: George Clooney
Supporting Actress: Rachel Weiss
Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Director: Ang Lee
Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain (Munich is my fav)
Best Screenplay: Crash (Match Point should win, awesome script!)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Documentary: Murderball (I went with my heart on this- hopefully the penguins don't take it)
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Foreign Language Film: Sophie Scoll, Germany


Should we also use this thread to discuss the show tonight?

[Angelfish]

This is what DH and I submitted to our family Oscar pool:

Best Film: Brokeback Mountain
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Best Original Screenplay: Crash (will win)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Cinematography: Memoirs of a Geisha
Foreign Language Film: Tsotsi - We picked this one because it was a funny word; we have no idea, really.
Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins

[Rosebud]

Thoughts on the show....

Jon Stewart is really funny! I was glad when everyone in the audience loosened up a little and finally started laughing at his jokes. Sort of a stiff crowd this year.

Three 6 Mafia winning for best song was shocking... and hilarious. That "interpretive dance" that was going on during the song's performance was surreal to say the least. Having sat in Oscar screenings and been the youngest person in the room by about.... oh, FORTY YEARS.... I'm mystified that this song won. But it made for some of the best jokes of the night!

Lily Tomlin/ Meryl Streep and the Altman homage was brililant! Love the Altman.

All the guys at our Oscar party fell out of their chairs when Salma Hayak came onstage. They actually rewound it and watched her AGAIN. :rolleyes: But, she did look really hot. Girls who drew gasps when they walked onstage (and not in a good way)... Jessica Alba and Hilary Swank. Ladies, eat a sandwich for God's sake!!

Two hugely bad calls... "March of the Penguins" winning best Doc and "Crash" winning best picture. Voters, did you actually WATCH the other films nominated this year?! UUUUGGGGGHHHH... I hate it when the voters get it so, so wrong.

I bombed in my Oscar pool, so the 12 year winning streak is broken. :( Darn you, Crash!!

[TX Sweetheart]

I didn't watch (we have no antenna or cable) but I was keeping up with everything on IMDB... as I was looking at the pictures, the one thing that kept running through my mind was "None of the guys brushed their hair and most of the girls need new stylists!"

Oh and I just about fell out of my chair when I saw Crash had won Best Picture.

[Angelfish]

This is the first time I watched the show from beginning to end, and boy, it was boring.

I got 17 right, tying with my mother, and coming behind my aunt and cousin, who each got 18.

[kam]

I don't think half the voters actually watch all of the films. While I knew that Reese would win, I wonder how much of stretch it was to play June Carter vs. a man! It doesn't make sense. March of the Penguins closely resembled a documentary we've seen on Discovery HD.

I think the pimp song won because voters were trying to be hip. With that, the song was important to the film and the film wouldn't have been the same without it.

Lily Tomlin and Meryl Streep were the best part of the evening. It was boring, but I think the audience was ridiculously low-key. Seriously people, get excited.

[kam]

Article on the audience's lack of enthusiasm - and it's not us, it's them:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11687022/

[msnicolea]

I got everything but Best Picture--son of a . . .

[nolagirl]

Me too.......I couldn't believe Brokeback didn't win. Although I did love Crash, Brokeback deserved the award IMO.

Was anyone else annoyed that Ang Lee didn't thank his cast during his acceptance speech? I mean, it's cute to thank your kids and all........but the best director in the world can't make a good movie without a great cast. I thought Jake, Heath and Michelle were all phenomenal in their BB roles. Since they didn't get any Oscar recognition, the least Ang could have done was to recognize them in some way!

(Okay I'm done.....sorry. I just hate when they thank all the finance people and forget about the actors!)

[lawyerlee]

Was anyone else annoyed that Ang Lee didn't thank his cast during his acceptance speech? I mean, it's cute to thank your kids and all........but the best director in the world can't make a good movie without a great cast. I thought Jake, Heath and Michelle were all phenomenal in their BB roles. Since they didn't get any Oscar recognition, the least Ang could have done was to recognize them in some way!
I hadn't really thought about it, but I tend to agree. Too bad he missed that opportunity.

I really thought Brokeback would win, and it was my choice, but I'm actually quite pleased that Crash won. To pull off such an intricate story and put together all those amazing performances really was a remarkable feat. And the movie makes you *think* - long after you've finished watching. I have to commend Paul Haggis for confronting our race issues and doing it so well. He never resorts to stereotypes or relies on assumptions, which is a very rare thing. :)

[msnicolea]

I just don't think Crash is as good a movie as Brokeback--even though I really liked it.

I was annoyed the piump song one simply because it isn't a good rap song--I can name 1, 347 rap or hip hop songs that are better crafted and better performed--my husband and I were just shaking our heads! Yes, it fit the movie well, but I thiought the song form Crash was fantastic and deserved to win!

[kam]

Oooo - one of my pet peeves last night was that they turned of the mic on the acceptance speeches. Even on best picture. I think Ang Lee just forgot about the cast because he was under a time constraint.

[sdianems]

I thought Jon Stewart was so boring! And I really really like him, too....but he lost me in the first 3 minutes.
Now, having said that (since I am conifdent that I could not have done a better job of it); the VH1 Best Week Ever folks were on The Today Show and talking about how the crowd is "too cool for the room" and they need to lighten up....one of the worst rooms ever to play in front of for sure!

I loved all the wonderful hairdos on the ladies, and felt bad for Lauren Bacall who really seemed to be struggling there. Does anyone know if she is having health issues?

[msnicolea]

Doesn't Lauren Bacall have parkinson's or something similar? I'm off to search.

[gayle]

I am totally bummed that Brokeback didn't win, it really deserved it IMHO. Crash was a great film, don't get me wrong, but it wasn't on par with Brokeback.

This was without a doubt the MOST boring Oscars I have ever watched. I love Jon Stewart, but he doesn't do this gig very well.

Bring back Chris Rock, he was "da bomb" as a host!

[sdianems]

Doesn't Lauren Bacall have parkinson's or something similar? I'm off to search.
Thanks...that makes so much sense! I felt bad for her as her talk went on; I am thinking that the director could have helped her out some there. She deserves to be remembered well in her advancing years.

OH....I totally missed the pre-show hoopla. Did anyone see Issac Mizraahi (sp?); did he behave himself this time?

[jesvet]

SNOOOOOZER! What a disappointment.

Philip Seymour Hoffman told Letterman he had promised friends back in high school if he ever won an Oscar he would get up and bark like a dog until they dragged him off. That would have made things more interesting, at least.

[gayle]

SNOOOOOZER! What a disappointment.

Philip Seymour Hoffman told Letterman he had promised friends back in high school if he ever won an Oscar he would get up and bark like a dog until they dragged him off. That would have made things more interesting, at least.


Barking would have definately livened things up!

[Asha]

i am so glad that crash did win. it is one of my favorite movies ever. the script was amazing, the acting incredible, and it moved me in so many ways that most movies don't do. it's actually a movie i could see many times. so many scenes brought up so many intense emotions - revulsion, fear, despair, sadness, shame, etc. it went where many movie makers are afraid to go. yes, brokeback mountain was a moving movie, but to me it was another love story.

[MaineBelle]

I didn't see Capote, so I can't really say anything, but I would have loved to see Heath Ledger win for best Actor. I really thought that he embodied that role, and I could feel Ennis' pain.

I definitely noticed that Ang Lee didn't thank the cast. How could he have missed that?

I definitely thought is was a boring show. Enough of all the montages!! Did we really need one on Film Noir?

[Secret_Squirrel]

i am so glad that crash did win. it is one of my favorite movies ever. the script was amazing, the acting incredible, and it moved me in so many ways that most movies don't do. it's actually a movie i could see many times. so many scenes brought up so many intense emotions - revulsion, fear, despair, sadness, shame, etc. it went where many movie makers are afraid to go. yes, brokeback mountain was a moving movie, but to me it was another love story.

Asha, ITA!

[kam]

I was shocked that Dan Futterman was the writer of the Capote screenplay (and was an executive producer). He was a major role in the show "Judging Amy" and is currently a frequent player in "Related". It just seems like two very different worlds!

[lawyerlee]

I was shocked that Dan Futterman was the writer of the Capote screenplay (and was an executive producer). He was a major role in the show "Judging Amy" and is currently a frequent player in "Related". It just seems like two very different worlds!
I thought that was the same guy, but I forgot to check! I thought, "Surely not!" But it *is* him. How cool! :)

[kam]

I thought that was the same guy, but I forgot to check! I thought, "Surely not!" But it *is* him. How cool! :)

Apparently he, the director and Phillip Seymour Hoffman are childhood friends. My childhood friends are getting a call from me soon - we're obviously underaccomplished!

[Myra]

I was shocked that Dan Futterman was the writer of the Capote screenplay (and was an executive producer). He was a major role in the show "Judging Amy" and is currently a frequent player in "Related". It just seems like two very different worlds!
My coworker told me that they met when Clooney was on The Facts of Life, and Futterman was a writer there!

Was anyone else annoyed that Ang Lee didn't thank his cast during his acceptance speech?
When he didn't thank the cast, I took it as Lee assuming that he would win Best Picture as well, and could thank them then.

[Rose]

When he didn't thank the cast, I took it as Lee assuming that he would win Best Picture as well, and could thank them then.

I guess he shouldn't have waited. I thought it was a bit odd too, especially since none of the cast received the award they were up for.

[msnicolea]

Ang Lee seems to be a very thoughtful person who has thanked the cast MANY times at other award shows--I'm sure it was just an oversight.

[nolagirl]

I'm sure it was an oversight on Ang's part....although I'm pretty sure it is the producer, not the director who accepts the Best Picture award, so that was his big chance! I know its silly to be annoyed... I just thought Jake looked really disappointed when he lost. He's such a cutie that I have to be disgruntled on his behalf!